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Micah Woods's avatar

Really enjoying the series Steve. I haven't rolled up my sleeves on AI yet and so it's nice to benefit from your experience. 'a14m' that made me smile and what a relief when you started using it in the next paragraph :)

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uugr's avatar

Speaking as someone in what you'd call the 'expansionist' camp, I don't think you're really engaging with the central crux of our position. As in here:

"I resisted the urge to answer “Yeah, well, your mom is a brute-force statistical pattern matcher which blends up the internet and gives you back a slightly unappetizing slurry of it when asked.”

But I think it would have been true."

~ Scott Alexander, "GPT-2 As Step Towards General Intelligence", 2019 (https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-general-intelligence/)

All three AIs you spoke to, clearly, obviously, *functionally* understand syntax and grammar. They're able to write with perfect adherence to grammatical rules in novel contexts, without fail, no matter how far outside their training distribution they're taken. If you sent any of your three transcripts to someone who'd never heard of an LLM, and said "what's really interesting is that the model here doesn't understand syntax and grammar at all", they'd look at you like you'd grown a second head.

The expansionist model is to view this as evidence about how understanding of language *actually works*, rather than as evidence about how easily humans can be fooled. You say: "It does not seem right that such complexity could emerge from pattern-fitting, even very sophisticated pattern-fitting such as the Transformer performs." That this is so unexpected, so unprecedented, should tell us (IMO) that our understanding of cognition itself was incomplete, because it could not have predicted this could happen.

I don't think anything in your mechanical description contradicts this, any more than understanding the simplicity of an individual neuron contradicts the possibility of intelligent human minds. The surprising thing *is* that this lucid and capable emergent pattern is derived purely from this relatively simple training process.

(Incidentally, if you argue persistently enough, Claude or Gemini will also agree with the expansionist position; Claude 3 Opus in particular barely needs to be nudged for this. I think the true answer to which viewpoint is correct, from the AI's perspective, is that it doesn't know; but that it trusts the user, and is very impressionable, and anyways isn't supposed to contradict people, so it will believe that whatever the user thinks is probably true.)

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